Olu Allen
To the person who will become president of Nigeria in 2027 – whether Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, or some name we have not yet heard- I need you to understand something before the victory parties begin.
You are not winning power. You are inheriting a collapse that has been carefully dressed as reform.
President Bola Tinubu’s government has not failed with a loud bang. It has failed in the most surreptitious way, through policies that sound responsible on paper but have quietly hollowed out the state, exhausted the people, and left you with debts you cannot pay, security you cannot fix, and a political class that will eat you alive.
Let me be precise.
What you are being told are “successes”
You will hear that Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy. True. But the savings, over N10 trillion projected across three years, have largely disappeared into debt servicing and a governance structure that now includes more than 50 ministers and a presidency so bloated it would make previous administrations blush. Petrol now sells for more than N700 per litre in most states, and smuggling has returned.
The monster is dead, but Nigerians are paying three times as much to move.
You will hear that the exchange rate was unified. Also true in a technical sense. But the parallel market still thrives, with rates hovering above N1,600 to the pound in early 2026. The official rate is held up by forward contracts and opaque inflows. Round-tripping merely found new windows.
You will hear that foreign reserves climbed to around $49 billion. What you will not be told is that a large portion of that is borrowed or tied up.
Net reserves remain dangerously thin, barely two months of imports. And revenue is “more predictable” only because borrowing has become the default.
These are not foundations. These are façades.
The quiet failure you are walking into
Here is what Tinubu’s government actually achieved: debt service consuming over 90 per cent of federal revenue. That means for every N100 the government makes, N90 goes straight to creditors, local and foreign. By the time you take office, you will be lucky to have N5 left for salaries, roads, or hospitals. The government has functionally stopped governing. It now exists only to service loans.
And those “tough reforms” came with conditional loans from the IMF and World Bank. The next round of budget support, which Nigeria will desperately need by 2027, will demand even harsher terms. Further removal of subsidies (electricity, agriculture), higher taxes, and more privatization.
You will sit in Aso Rock, but the real decisions will already have been written in Washington. Try explaining that to the voters who put you there.
Poverty and anger are the real inheritance
Tinubu’s reforms pushed inflation to nearly 34 per cent at its peak. The National Bureau of Statistics may dress up the numbers, but poverty has risen to over 60 per cent of the population. Millions of Nigerians have lost purchasing power in two years. The average citizen is more desperate, more hungry, and far angrier than they were in 2023.
You will inherit that anger. And because you are the new president, they will not blame Tinubu anymore.
Every high fuel price, every expensive bag of rice, every closed factory, that will be your fault. The “Obidient” movement, Arewa youths, Niger Delta militants, all of them will test you within your first 100 days.
Security is a trap, not a challenge
Do not be fooled by the absence of dramatic headlines. Bandits, kidnappers, and separatist groups are waiting to see if you are weak. Tinubu’s homeland security strategy produced photo opportunities, not results. Kidnappings surged past 1,000 in early 2026 alone.
You will face a choice: go hard with the military and risk civilian casualties and international condemnation, or negotiate and look weak. Either way, you lose. And the security votes? They will already be looted before your swearing-in.
Your own party will be the first enemy
Let us be honest about Nigerian politics. The governors, senators, and godfathers who served Tinubu will circle you like vultures from day one. They will demand “reimbursement” for their 2027 support, contracts, waivers, and cabinet slots.
If you refuse, they will sabotage your government from within. By your second year, you could be a powerless figurehead while the party’s “leaders” run a parallel government from their mansions.
The final warning
You think you have won a trophy. You have won a bank account with zero balance and a court judgment of N200 trillion. The pros you have been shown are a mirage, slightly better data, a few freed-up funds, and the luxury of not being the one who started the fire. But the cons will bury you unless you are smarter, tougher, and more ruthless than Tinubu and than all your predecessors combined.
You will need to restructure the debt – good luck getting creditors to agree. You will need to grow the economy at more than seven per cent annually just to make a dent in unemployment, currently impossible with this infrastructure. And you will need to earn the trust of a traumatized, impoverished population while your own ministers steal.
So go ahead. Plan your victory speech. Wave to the crowd. But the moment you step into the Villa, remember this: the real dashboard will not show oil prices or GDP. It will show a ticking clock.
And the question is not whether you will succeed. The question is whether Nigeria can survive one more quiet, well-dressed failure.
Allen writes on public affairs and advocates for good governance.
