Olu Allen
Nigeria is bleeding. Yet instead of applying a tourniquet, President Bola Tinubu keeps reaching for more loans, as if debt were the cure.
At the end of April 2026, Taiwo Oyedele was sworn in as the new Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, replacing Wale Edun in a cabinet reshuffle.
The new finance minister has yet to make a public statement on borrowing. But the warning that opens this piece, about Nigeria’s unsustainable dependence on debt, was issued by none other than Taiwo Oyedele himself in his previous role as Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms.
His warning was clear:
“Nigeria cannot continue to finance development primarily through borrowing. We must build a fiscal system capable of sustainably supporting critical infrastructure, quality education, affordable healthcare, security, and social protection.”
Wise words, widely reported at the time. But now that Oyedele sits in the finance minister’s chair, the President appears not to be listening.
Debt doubled in three years, and counting
When President Tinubu took office on 29 May 2023, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at approximately N87.38 trillion.
By 31 December 2025, that figure had surged to N159.28 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office’s latest published data. That is an addition of more than N71 trillion in just two and a half years, one of the sharpest periods of debt accumulation in Nigeria’s fiscal history.
In dollar terms, Nigeria’s total public debt reached $110.97 billion by the end of 2025, with external debt alone standing at $51.86 billion.
Debt‑to‑GDP ratio rose from about 40% in 2023 to over 52% by the end of 2024. For context, at the time Tinubu took office, the ratio hovered around 38–40%.
The loans: from billions to trillions
The figures are staggering:
· World Bank loans approved for Nigeria between June 2023 and May 2026 total approximately $9.35 billion. As of December 2025, Nigeria’s World Bank debt alone had risen by $2.08 billion in one year to $19.89 billion.
· In April 2026, the Senate and House of Representatives approved a $516.3 million syndicated loan to fund the Sokoto–Badagry Super Highway.
· In May 2026, the government entered advanced talks with the World Bank for a fresh $1.25 billion loan to support economic reforms and job creation, expected to be presented for approval on June 26, 2026.
· Overall, as of early 2025, the World Bank accounted for 41.3% of Nigeria’s $46.98 billion external debt.
Ask yourself: Where did the previous loans go? Can you see the roads? Feel the healthcare? Touch the education? Or do you simply feel the heat of inflation and the cold hand of rising taxes?
One finance minister tried to stop this train; he was removed
Let me remind you of history, because Nigerians forget too fast.
Wale Edun was Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy from 2023 until April 21, 2026. During his tenure, he resisted pressure to release capital funds recklessly.
He prioritised debt servicing and publicly acknowledged that the government might not meet its revenue targets, a statement that reportedly contradicted the presidency’s position and led to key agencies being moved out of his supervision.
On 21 April 2026, President Tinubu removed Edun from office. The official reason: “strengthening cohesion, synergy in governance”. But the practical effect was unmistakable: the man who said “slow down” is gone.
Taiwo Oyedele, who had been Minister of State for Finance since March 2026, was elevated to replace Edun as Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy.
Now Oyedele, the same man who warned that borrowing cannot be the primary tool for development—sits in the chair.
How long before he too finds his voice silenced, or his powers cut?
The simple truth Tinubu refuses to see
Borrowing only works if:
· Your economy grows faster than your debt.
· Your revenue is strong enough to service the loans.
· The country is not in structural decline.
Yet Nigeria shows all signs of trouble:
· GDP per capita fell from $877 in 2024 to $835 in 2025, a 4.73% drop, according to the IMF.
· Debt‑service‑to‑revenue ratio rose to a staggering 116.8% in 2024 and remained critically high at about 113% in the first quarter of 2025, according to assessments by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG). That means debt servicing alone exceeds total federal revenue, a classic sign of fiscal stress where the government must borrow simply to meet its existing obligations.
· Between January and July 2025, the Federal Government earned N13.67 trillion in revenue but spent N9.81 trillion on debt servicing and N4.51 trillion on salaries, together exceeding total revenue by 5%. Capital expenditure was squeezed to just N3.60 trillion, compared to a prorated allocation of N13.67 trillion, an underperformance of nearly 74%.
When you borrow into a decline, you don’t develop, you accelerate the collapse. Every new loan weakens the naira further. Every dollar repayment drains foreign reserves faster. Every infrastructure project built on borrowed money risks becoming a monument to our children’s poverty: they will pay the interest while the road crumbles.
A direct message to President Tinubu
Your Excellency,
You appointed Wale Edun. When he resisted reckless spending and prioritised fiscal discipline, he was removed.
You then appointed Taiwo Oyedele, who, in his own words as tax reform chairman, warned that Nigeria “cannot continue to finance development primarily through borrowing.”
Now he is your Minister of Finance. Will you listen to him? Or will you silence him too, and then appoint a third minister who will simply nod and say “Yes, sir”?
That is not leadership. That is building a palace on a swamp.
You still have time to change course. Here is direct advice from one Nigerian who wants you to succeed:
Stop the borrowing. Now. Not “slow it down.” Not “restructure it.” Stop.
Instead:
· Go after revenue aggressively. Block every leak. Tax the super‑rich and multinationals who pay little to nothing. Broaden the non‑oil tax base.
· Sell or concession moribund state assets. Let private capital build roads, not foreign loans.
· Cut the cost of governance. No more frivolous foreign trips, no more bloated aides. Personnel costs alone consumed N4.51 trillion in the first seven months of 2025.
· Present a budget that lives within our means, even if it hurts.
Yes, it will hurt. But you know what hurts more? A country that borrows itself into a coma and never wakes up.
Final word
Nigerians are watching. We are not fools. We see the debt clock ticking, N159.28 trillion and rising, and our children’s future being mortgaged.
If you refuse to listen to your own Minister of Finance, listen to the streets, the market women, the students, the unemployed graduates. They are already paying for your borrowings with higher prices, a currency that has lost over 70% of its value since 2023, and a GDP per capita that has fallen below $900 for the first time in decades.
Stop digging. Start building. But build with what we have, not with what we will owe for generations.
Allen writes on public affairs and advocates for good governance.
