Ahmed Yahaya-Joe
“Necessity is what impels men to take action, and once necessity is gone, only rot and decay are left.” – Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince (1532)
Will history be kind to President Bola Tinubu?
One thing is certain, though: Nigeria will one day be prefixed BT/AT – Before Tinubu/After Tinubu.
Whether or not it will be for good or bad of our nation remains to be seen, unlike the British Prime Minister 1939-1945 & 1951-1955, Winston Churchill, who enunciated: “History would be kind to me because I intend to write it.”
Yes, he did with several memorable quotes, much bombast and hands-on leadership, culminating in more than 62 world-class biographical books written on him, including his depiction in several movies since his death in 1965.
In sharp contrast to Churchill, President Tinubu is neither a man of letters nor oratorical skill.
This is perhaps why he creates the impression of multi-tasking and simultaneous capacity in compensation for the Villa official photographer.
But underneath that careful construct of attention to detail, doesn’t the attached image actually in contrast betray a symptom of a disorganized boss with a poor workflow?
Irrespective of the answers, if truth be told, Mr. President is suffering from an edifice complex also.
How else can one describe his name be emblazoned on the ongoing Lagos-Calabar coastal highway project?
Before then, the best thing that happened to Nigeria’s capital since Julius Berger graciously allowed his name be engraved across the FCT starting in May 2024 with Bola Tinubu Way and Bola Tinubu Building located within the National Assembly grounds.
By December, the Nigerian Immigration Service named its new digital command and control center, Bola Ahmed Tinubu Technology Innovation Complex (BATTIC).
Lest we forget, in January 2025, Bola Ahmed Tinubu Polytechnic in Gwarimpa followed suit; later the same month, the Bola Tinubu Barracks in Asokoro was similarly christened.
Last but not the least, in June, Tinubu International Conference Centre.
Indeed, the very antithesis of the Heineken advert in the 1980s-1990s conveying the poignant message that, “When you make a great beer, you don’t have to make a great fuss.”
For this writer, that premium lager’s branding is a benign reminder of how the 45th and 47th US presidents brazenly renamed the iconic John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, located on the eastern bank of the Potomac River in Washington, DC, as the Donald Trump and the John Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.
But in a clime where the rule of law still prevails without the existence of any extra-judicial black market, President Trump was slammed down in court.
Hear one of the vindicated plaintiffs, a US Congresswoman when federal judge ordered a reversal of the mentioned name change;
“The Kennedy Center is an institution that belongs to the American people, not to Donald Trump.
He has desecrated this sacred memorial for his own vanity. I am proud to have fought for the rule of law and to protect this sacred institution.”
Arguably, in 2027, a generality of Nigerians would not necessarily be voting for any opposition candidate.
Nigerians would most likely vote against the incumbent President through massive voter apathy bordering on a near boycott.
This is because it goes without saying that Asiwaju has spectacularly squandered the sparse goodwill that brought him into office in 2023 with a much less than 40% of the vote.
It is, therefore, against that background that this writer opines that there may be a run-off next election cycle. And why not?
Asiwaju’s stay in office has so far been characterized by seeking grandiosity through self-branding. His over exaggerated sense of self-importance is even precariously metastasizing into an imperial presidency of sorts fuelled by a constant massaging of his inflated ego and an excessive need for validation.
Edifice complex is a term coined by the Filipino activist, Behn Cervantes (1938-2013) in the 1970s to describe his nation’s President Ferdinand Marcos in office 1965-1986 penchant for using publicly funded construction projects as political and electoral propaganda.
Reminiscent of the Kennedy Center, does the Minna airport belong to the Nigerian people?
In the Hausa world view, there is what is known as “kawaici” (reticence), which is part of a body of ethics required of “Mutumin kirki” representing the highest ideal in civic virtue.
This is the main reason why Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar despite being former heads of state, both “stepped aside” for the airport to be instead named after Malam Abubakar Imam (1911-1981) who was a first generation Katsina
College contemporary of the Ahmadu Bellos and Tafawa Balewas.
He was the legendary polygot editor of the Northern Region’s newspaper “Gaskiya Ta Fi Kobo” (Truth is better than money) from 1939 to 1954.
Malam was also an accomplished author of 20 books and a prolific translator of Arabic and English into Hausa.
Anybody who grossly underestimates the seemingly innocuous act of renaming the Minna airport doesn’t really understand how to properly read and conscientiously interpret certain nuances in the North.
Churchill’s humiliating electoral defeat of 1945 should be a cautionary tale for all Nigerians irrespective of our partisan differences. Despite his huge popularity for spearheading the allied victory of Second World War, no pundit saw that crushing upset coming.
How could a sterling leader par excellence lose an election the same year he won a war?
Expectedly, Churchill was hugely re-elected in his own Woodford constituency in Essex. Yet, his party (Conservative) was only able to rake in just 36% of the vote compared to Labour Party that received 48% and the Liberal Party, 9%.
As far as the discerning British voters were concerned, their leader had lost the kind of necessity they saw in him in the 1939 election cycle.
Decay and rot had eventually set in irrespective of that political titan’s accomplishments and proven track record as Machiavelli reminds us in our opening quote.
In turn, Asiwaju lost necessity because ab initio Nigeria’s leadership has always been a matter of his transactional turn rather than a national marathon for him.
A classic Ben Johnson of sorts lacking the loneliness of a long-distance runner.
Churchill, the scion of the wealthy and aristocratic Spencer family, lost his vacancy at 10 Downing Street partly because he continuously focused on expecting constant validation for his statesmanship.
Meanwhile, the generality of British voters on the flip side expected a new lease of post-war life – an economic revitalization which, could not happen without the nationalisation of key industries such as steel, coal, and railways in their reckoning.
Unfortunately, Churchill’s “elite background and paternalistic Victorian habits” hung like a sword of Damocles over him.
He, therefore, was not ready to commit class suicide.
Post-war Britain had since become more ideologically driven towards the more practical need for the working man beyond grandstanding.
They had had enough rhetoric. Apparently, Churchill completely misread the tea leaves at the grassroots and coffee grains in the middle class of British society.
Come 2027, despite a currently dysfunctional opposition, have Nigerians had enough of the rhetoric?
Are there similar conflicting expectations in Nigeria as in post-war Britain of more than 80 years ago?
Is President Tinubu really in direct touch with the realities of Nigeria’s expanding underclass and shrinking middle class?
Too many questions, too few answers.
In conclusion, the overwhelming need for President Tinubu’s handlers and even his political fans to carefully understudy Churchill’s electoral chastening in 1945 cannot be overemphasized.
