Brazilian coffee farmers are facing a wave of uncertainty following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, a move that has sent shockwaves through the country’s largest coffee-producing regions.
In Varre-Sai, northern Rio de Janeiro state, small-scale producers like José Natal da Silva say the decision came without warning.
“We were optimistic—expecting a strong harvest and good prices. Then, out of nowhere, it felt like a bomb exploded,” he said. “Now we don’t even know who to turn to.”
Many producers have already begun cutting costs by laying off workers and suspending exports, unsure if their coffee will reach U.S. markets under the new trade conditions.
“How can we afford inputs for our farms or take care of our families when we don’t know what the future holds?” asked Fernanda Marçola, another local grower. “It’s heartbreaking. We’re in the dark.”
Trump linked the tariff to Brazil’s legal case against former president Jair Bolsonaro, his political ally, who is currently on trial over an alleged attempt to subvert the 2022 election results.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva condemned the tariff as “unacceptable blackmail.”
“This is a political decision,” said producer Marcio Vargas. “And once again, it’s the working class that pays the price.”
The fallout may also reach American consumers. With global coffee stocks already tight, analysts warn that the tariff could drive up retail prices. Brazil currently supplies about 30% of the coffee consumed in the U.S., making it the country’s top source.
Last year, the U.S. imported more than $1.6 billion worth of Brazilian coffee, trade data shows.
As the tariff takes effect, both ends of the supply chain—farmers in Brazil and coffee lovers in the U.S.—may soon feel the pressure.
