Olu Allen
Let’s set the record straight on one thing: they can gather 8,800 councilors in Owerri to sing “city boy movement.” They can roll out the red carpet for governors jumping from sinking ships into the APC.
But all of that is just noise, political theatrics that mean very little when the real electoral arithmetic is done.
The road to Tinubu’s second term runs heavily through the North.
And when we say “North,” let’s be precise, we are talking largely about the North-West, the single most decisive voting bloc in Nigeria.
This is not sentiment. It is electoral mathematics.
Lesson 1: The Numbers Don’t Lie
In 2023, the North-West geopolitical zone contributed 2,652,235 votes to Tinubu’s total, a significant share of his nationwide votes. Some estimates suggest the broader North accounted for well over half of his support.
Let that sink in:
No serious path to Aso Rock exists without strong northern backing.
Meanwhile, the so-called “City Boys” are busy making noise in the South-West, assuming street credibility in Lagos translates to electoral strength in Katsina, Kano, and Kaduna.
Reality check:
The South-West remains a critical base, but it is not sufficient on its own to secure a second term.
The path to 2027 does not end in Ikoyi or Victoria Island.
It stretches deep into the northern heartland.
Lesson 2: Governors Joining APC? Not the Silver Bullet
We see the headlines: “Northern PDP governors set to defect to APC.”
And the spin doctors celebrate.
But let’s be clear:
Defections strengthen optics, not necessarily votes.
These moves are often about:
Political survival
Access to federal power
Strategic positioning
But here’s the part many miss:
Governors do not automatically control grassroots voting behavior, especially in the North.
Voters in the region are influenced by:
Local sentiment
Religious and traditional structures
Perceived fairness and performance
A governor’s defection may shift alliances at the top, but it does not guarantee millions of ballots at the bottom.
Lesson 3: Why Opposition Platforms Are Gaining Attention
This explains why platforms like the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are attracting interest in parts of the North.
Not necessarily because they are the most organized, but because they are becoming channels for discontent.
When figures like:
Babachir Lawal
Ibrahim Shekarau
begin aligning with alternative coalitions, it signals something deeper:
A search for political leverage outside the ruling structure.
And when Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso brings his movement into any platform, it doesn’t just add numbers; it adds structure, especially in Kano.
Now, does this make ADC a dominant national force? Not yet.
But it does make it:
A relevant vessel for protest votes and political negotiation.
Lesson 4: After Muhammadu Buhari, A Different North
One major shift is often overlooked:
The North is no longer politically centralized the way it once was.
With Buhari gone, the old:
CPC cohesion
“Follow-follow” alignment
has weakened significantly.
What does that mean?
The northern vote is now more fragmented, competitive, and open.
It cannot be assumed.
It must be earned.
And that applies to everyone, including Tinubu.
Lesson 5: The “City Boy” Miscalculation
Let’s talk about the “city boy movement.”
Youth rallies in Lagos, Abuja, or Owerri may create visibility.
But elections in Nigeria are not decided on Instagram.
They are shaped by:
Rural voters
Security realities
Cost of living
Local trust networks
The deciding voters are:
Farmers in Katsina
Traders in Kano
Communities dealing with insecurity and inflation
As voices like Ali Ndume have pointed out, there is growing dissatisfaction in parts of the North.
And in politics, dissatisfaction does not stay silent; it shows up in voting patterns.
You cannot communicate your way out of material hardship.
The Bottom Line
Tinubu’s 2027 path is not determined by:
Social media enthusiasm
Elite defections alone
Or regional noise
It will be shaped by:
How well he performs across key regions, especially the North-West, where electoral weight is highest.
The South-West remains his strongest base.
The North remains his most critical battleground.
Ignore either at your own risk.
Final Thought
2027 will not be decided by slogans.
It will be decided by:
Performance
Perception
And turnout across regions
And right now, the North, particularly the North-West, is shaping up to be the arena where the toughest questions will be asked…
…and the loudest answers will come from.
Allen writes on public affairs and promotes good governance.
