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The Price of Conditioning: Why Nigerians Keep Settling for Crumbs

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Olu Allen

A Call to Awaken

Anyone who has watched a pheasant hunt has probably noticed the remarkable discipline of the retriever.

The bird is shot from the sky. It falls into thick grass or dense bushes.

The dog sprints after it, finds it, gently grips it in its mouth, and returns it to its master. For this loyalty, it receives a biscuit, a pat on the head, or another small reward. The hunter walks away with the bird. The dog walks away with a treat.

For years, I have wondered why the dog never simply keeps the bird.

The answer is simple: conditioning.

The dog has been trained to surrender something immensely valuable in exchange for something comparatively insignificant. It does not perceive the imbalance because it has been taught to believe the exchange is normal.

It has never questioned the arrangement.

Societies can be conditioned in much the same way.

People can become accustomed to celebrating crumbs while ignoring the feast they helped create. They can be taught to applaud temporary relief while overlooking the policies that made such relief necessary in the first place.

Over time, they stop asking bigger questions.

That is a dangerous place for any democracy.

When Loans Become the Headline

Recently, Peter Obi questioned the structure of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFund), arguing that public resources should be directed toward making education more accessible rather than expanding student borrowing.

Predictably, the debate quickly shifted.

Supporters of the programme pointed to the numbers. Government officials say hundreds of thousands of students have benefited, with more than ₦174 billion already disbursed.

Those figures deserve recognition. If a student who would otherwise have abandoned school can continue their education because of financial support, that matters.

But there is another question that deserves equal attention.

Why has borrowing become the preferred solution?

The purpose of higher education is to develop the human capital that drives national prosperity. Engineers build infrastructure. Doctors strengthen healthcare.

Teachers shape future generations. Scientists innovate. Entrepreneurs create jobs.

If education is one of the greatest public investments a nation can make, should the long-term ambition be to finance it primarily through debt, or to make it progressively more affordable?

This is not an argument against helping students.

It is an argument for asking whether we are solving the right problem.

Around the world, governments and universities continue to experiment with different models. Some institutions have expanded tuition-free access for lower-income families.

Others have increased grants instead of loans. Many still rely heavily on student borrowing.

The global conversation is not settled.

Nigeria should therefore ask its own question honestly:

Are we building a system that reduces the financial burden on future generations, or one that merely shifts today’s burden onto tomorrow’s graduates?

These are not questions of politics.

They are questions of national priorities.

The Arithmetic We Cannot Ignore

Perhaps the most troubling issue is not the existence of loans.

It is the wider financial picture within which those loans exist.

The International Monetary Fund projects that Nigeria will spend more than half of its government revenue on debt servicing in 2026.

Think carefully about what that means.

Before hospitals receive funding…
Before schools are improved…
Before security is strengthened…
Before roads are maintained…
Before civil servants are paid…

More than half of government revenue is projected to go toward servicing existing debt.

No household would describe such a situation as comfortable.

No business would celebrate it.

Neither should a nation.

Debt is not inherently bad.

Every serious economy borrows.

Businesses borrow to expand.

Families borrow to purchase homes.

Governments borrow to build infrastructure.

The real question is not whether money is borrowed.

The question is whether the borrowing creates enough economic value to justify its cost.

That requires discipline, transparency, and careful project selection.

Without those safeguards, borrowing becomes consumption disguised as investment.

Infrastructure Is Necessary. Accountability Is Essential.

Nigeria urgently needs better roads.

It needs modern ports.

It needs railways, electricity, water systems, hospitals, and digital infrastructure.

No serious observer disputes this.

Infrastructure creates opportunities, lowers business costs, and attracts investment.

The debate is therefore not about whether infrastructure should be built.

It is about whether every project represents the best use of scarce public resources and whether citizens receive full value for every naira borrowed.

When debt obligations continue to rise while essential public services struggle, citizens have every right to ask difficult questions.

Where is the money coming from?

What are the financing terms?

How will the project repay itself economically?

Who benefits?

How will success be measured?

These are not acts of opposition.

They are acts of responsible citizenship.

Democracy does not ask citizens to clap.

It asks them to scrutinize.

Neutral Institutions Matter

Another issue that deserves careful reflection is the expectation that state institutions remain politically neutral.

Whether it is the police, the judiciary, electoral bodies, or the civil service, public confidence depends upon the belief that these institutions serve the Constitution—not individual politicians.

Reports of the Lagos State Commissioner of Police attending the inauguration of the City Boy Movement naturally raised questions because the organisation openly supports President Bola Tinubu’s political future.

Even where no law has been broken, perception matters.

Public trust is fragile.

Citizens should never be left wondering whether institutions designed to protect everyone are becoming identified with one political interest over another.

Strong democracies depend not only on impartial institutions but also on the appearance of impartiality.

The Cheapest Purchase in Politics

Every election season brings familiar stories.

Rice.

Cash.

Clothing.

Motorcycles.

Generators.

Promises.

For many politicians, these are not gifts.

They are investments.

They understand something many voters forget.

The value of a vote far exceeds the price paid to obtain it.

A bag of rice may feed a family for several days.

A government chosen through compromised elections shapes education, healthcare, security, employment, taxation, and economic opportunity for years.

The exchange has never been equal.

Yet millions continue to accept it because hardship narrows horizons.

When survival becomes today’s priority, tomorrow often feels like a luxury.

That reality deserves compassion, not condemnation.

But it also deserves honesty.

Poverty should never become the currency through which democracy is purchased.

Conditioning Is Powerful—But It Is Not Permanent

Perhaps the greatest tragedy is not exploitation itself.

It is becoming so accustomed to exploitation that it no longer feels unusual.

People begin defending policies they have never examined.

They attack anyone who asks uncomfortable questions.

They mistake loyalty to politicians for loyalty to country.

That is how conditioning works.

It replaces curiosity with certainty.

It replaces accountability with applause.

It convinces citizens that asking questions is an act of betrayal rather than an act of patriotism.

Yet every democratic advance in history began because ordinary people refused to accept that the existing arrangement was the only possible arrangement.

Progress has never belonged to those who remained silent.

It has always belonged to those willing to ask, “Can we do better?”


The Awakening

Nigeria does not lack intelligent people.

It does not lack hardworking people.

It does not lack natural resources.

What it often lacks is a citizenry willing to demand more consistently than it celebrates personalities.

So ask questions.

When a new loan scheme is announced, ask whether the underlying problem is being solved.

When new borrowing is proposed, ask what return the nation should expect.

When public institutions appear politically aligned, ask whether constitutional neutrality is being protected.

When election gifts appear at your doorstep, remember that your vote is worth infinitely more than whatever accompanies it.

A democracy cannot become stronger than the expectations of its citizens.

If citizens demand little, leaders will often deliver little.

If citizens demand transparency, competence, accountability, and integrity, leaders eventually learn that these are no longer optional.

The retriever never questions the bargain because it has been trained not to.

Citizens have no such excuse.

We possess reason.

We possess memory.

We possess choice.

The future of Nigeria will not be determined merely by the decisions of those in power.

It will also be determined by what the people choose to tolerate.

The hunter keeps winning because the bargain remains unchallenged.

The day citizens begin to question that bargain is the day genuine democratic renewal begins.

Allen writes on public affairs and advocates for good governance.

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