Olu Allen
Nigeria at the Crossroads: Is Our Democracy Sleepwalking Into Breakdown?
When silence replaces justice, the soil becomes fertile for extra-constitutional ideas.
A military takeover does not begin with tanks on the streets.
It begins when citizens feel abandoned by their leaders, when the state becomes a private inheritance, and when insecurity becomes so routine that gunfire blends into daily life.
Long before a coup is announced, democracy decays quietly, in the shadows where justice is absent and accountability becomes a forgotten promise.
The Cracking Wall of Trust
Democracy stands only as tall as the public’s trust. Today in Nigeria, that trust is running out.
A recent survey by the Africa Polling Institute shows a dire picture: 79 percent of Nigerians no longer trust the judiciary, and 83 percent express little or no trust in the federal government under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
These are not mere statistics; they are bullet holes in the social contract.
Even the Chief Justice of Nigeria has admitted that endless delays and a backlog of cases are eroding public confidence.
When justice is slow, selective, or negotiable, citizens begin to search for justice outside democratic institutions. That is where the danger grows.
A Nation on Edge
Insecurity has become the most fluent language spoken across Nigeria.
Hydras of kidnapping, communal violence, banditry and terrorism threaten the foundations of civic life.
The Christmas-Eve massacre in Plateau State, in which nearly 200 people were killed, still lingers like a national ghost story.
In Kaduna, Zamfara, and the Northeast, mass abductions now seem as predictable as weather patterns. In Yobe State, more than 170 lives were taken in a single assault, a number that barely caused national uproar.
The greater tragedy is not just the killings, but the slow death of public outrage.
When former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai alleged that government agents have been paying bandits to free hostages, Nigerians were not surprised.
We nodded grimly, as though corruption in security and governance is a bitter but familiar spice.
This numbness is a warning. Democracies don’t collapse when injustice happens, they collapse when injustice no longer shocks us.
The Region is Burning
Nigeria’s crisis does not exist in isolation. West Africa is in the grip of a coup season.
From Niger to Mali, Burkina Faso to Gabon, and now Guinea-Bissau, fatigued democracies are being swallowed by uniforms and boots.
In this environment, the idea of military rule begins to look, to some citizens, like forced discipline rather than tyranny.
Yet here stands the paradox: Nigeria chairs ECOWAS, the body meant to defend democracy in the region.
Critics say the response under Tinubu has leaned heavily on threats and sanctions, rather than diplomatic engagement, a questionable strategy for a nation battling internal fragility.
Yes, the government has initiated the Regional Partnership for Democracy with UNDP.
But diplomatic activism abroad rings hollow if citizens at home feel unprotected, unheard, and unrepresented.
The Seductive Lie of Military Salvation
As public frustration grows, so does a dangerous whisper: “Maybe the military will do better.”
This is a false salvation. Coups do not cure corruption; they bury it deeper.
They do not secure rights; they suspend them at will. If democracy collapses in Nigeria, it is not the political class that will suffer first, it is the same ordinary citizens who already carry the load of unending violence and poverty.
We have already seen worrying glimpses of military impunity, from airstrikes that killed civilians, to uniformed officers who feel unanswerable to civilian authority.
These are not isolated incidents. They are lessons. They show how quickly power can slide away from elected leadership once arms begin to dictate behavior.
A Democracy Worth Defending
Nigeria does not need a savior in camouflage. What we need is a democracy that protects its citizens before it protects its politicians.
A democracy that delivers justice without negotiation.
A democracy where the police serve markets and highways as faithfully as they serve convoys.
Leadership must stop confusing political power with public service.
Security must stop treating ransom as strategy. Justice must stop moving slower than violence.
Citizens must be able to feel their nation as an institution, not just an address.
Democracy must be defended not by barricades and sirens, but by fairness, transparency, and a visible commitment to every citizen’s safety and dignity.
Leaders who cannot see this are already writing their own indictment.
Our hope does not lie in the barracks. It lies in the willingness of leaders to build a democracy worth defending, one where justice is visible, security is reliable, and every Nigerian feels valued before votes are counted.
Allen writes in public affairs and promote good governance. He can be reached on mrallenolu@gmail.com
