Dr. Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi
History is replete with examples of nations that allowed greed, arrogance, and the lust for power to erode democratic institutions. Nigeria today stands at a dangerous crossroads.
The gale of defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has raised alarm bells.
Governors senators and house of reps who once rode to power on the back of opposition platforms now find themselves coerced, bribed, or pressured into joining the ruling party.
This trend is not merely political manoeuvring, it is the slow but steady march toward a one-party state, a civilian dictatorship cloaked in democratic garb.
The Global Lessons of One-Party Dominance
History teaches us that one-party dominance rarely emerges from genuine competence or visionary leadership. Instead, it is often fuelled by opportunism, defections, and the erosion of institutions meant to safeguard democracy.
Zimbabwe under ZANU-PF: What began as a liberation movement quickly degenerated into a monopoly of power. Politicians defected to ZANU-PF not because of better governance but to secure personal survival and access to state resources.
The result was hyperinflation, economic collapse, and mass migration. Citizens paid the price while elites enriched themselves.
Russia under United Russia: Vladimir Putin’s consolidation of power was not about policies that improved the lives of ordinary Russians. Instead, it was about silencing dissent and rewarding loyalists.
Opposition leaders were jailed or exiled, while the ruling party became a rubber stamp for authoritarian decisions. Wars and international isolation followed, leaving ordinary Russians to suffer.
Cameroon under CPDM: Paul Biya’s decades-long rule has been sustained by defections and patronage.
Politicians cross over to the ruling party not to serve citizens but to secure protection and privileges. The result is civil unrest, economic stagnation, and humanitarian crises.
Kenya under KANU in the 1980s: Daniel arap Moi’s one-party dominance was built on corruption and suppression of dissent.
Defections were rewarded with patronage, while citizens endured ethnic violence and poverty. It took years of struggle to restore multiparty democracy.
Nigeria’s Current Trajectory Under Tinubu
Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria has witnessed a disturbing wave of defections.
Governors from traditionally PDP strongholds such as Delta (Sheriff Oborevwori), Enugu (Peter Mbah), Akwa Ibom (Umo Eno), and Rivers (Siminalye Fubara) have abandoned their mandates to join the APC.
These defections are not driven by policy alignment or genuine reform. They are calculated moves to secure protection, patronage, and relevance ahead of the 2027 elections.
Delta State: Once a PDP fortress since 1999, Governor Oborevwori’s defection in 2025 shocked many. His move was not about delivering better governance but about aligning with the ruling party for personal survival.
Enugu State: Governor Peter Mbah’s defection in October 2025 marked the collapse of another PDP stronghold. His decision was framed as “supporting Tinubu’s reforms,” but in reality, it was about securing political relevance.
Akwa Ibom State: Governor Umo Eno defected in June 2025, citing the need to “support Tinubu’s reforms.” Yet, citizens saw little or no evidence of reforms improving their lives. Instead, the defection was about consolidating elite interests.
Rivers State: Governor Siminalaye Fubara defected in December 2025, announcing that he had “the full support” of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and could not stay in a party that “could not protect him.”
The lesson is clear: defections are not about competence, good policies, or citizen welfare. They are about personal aggrandizement, survival, and greed.
The Rot of Institutions: National Assembly and Judiciary
National Assembly – A Rubber Stamp Legislature
The National Assembly, instead of acting as a check on executive excesses, has become a rubber stamp body populated by rotten and depraved individuals.
Endorsing defections: When governors and lawmakers defect, the Assembly raises no constitutional objections. Instead, defections are celebrated as “strengthening democracy,” even though they betray the electorate’s mandate.
Failure to protect opposition voices: Opposition lawmakers who challenge defections are silenced through committee marginalization, denial of speaking time, or outright suspension.
Budget approvals: The Assembly passes executive budgets and policies without scrutiny, ensuring that patronage flows to defectors who align with the ruling party.
In effect, the legislature has abandoned its constitutional duty of oversight, becoming a conveyor belt for executive directives.
Judiciary – The Seal of Corruption
The judiciary, compromised by corruption and political influence, has played a decisive role in legitimizing defections and electoral disputes.
Electoral petitions: In Rivers and Bayelsa, opposition challenges to gubernatorial defections were dismissed on technical grounds, with courts ruling that “membership of a political party is a personal choice.” This interpretation ignores the fact that governors were elected on opposition platforms.
Validation of defections: Courts have consistently refused to declare defecting governors’ seats vacant, despite constitutional provisions suggesting that elected officials who abandon their party mid-term should lose their mandate.
Partisan judgments: In several states, including Zamfara and Cross River, judicial rulings favoured defectors, effectively rewarding opportunism and undermining democratic accountability.
By sealing defections with legal legitimacy, the judiciary has become an accomplice in Nigeria’s slide toward one-party dominance.
The Warning
Nigeria’s democracy will not collapse overnight; it will wither silently if defections and arrogance go unchallenged.
Each defection is not a harmless political move but a betrayal of the people’s mandate, a brick removed from the foundation of accountability.
When opposition is silenced, when the legislature becomes a rubber stamp, and when the judiciary seals corruption, dictatorship does not arrive with guns, it arrives with applause.
The cost is clear: poverty deepens, insecurity spreads, hope dies, and citizens flee. If this drift continues, Nigeria will not just lose its democracy, it will lose its soul.
The Human Cost of One-Party Dominance
The arrogance of power is never abstract; it translates directly into suffering for ordinary citizens. Across nations where one-party dominance has taken root, the consequences have been devastating. Nigeria risks joining this tragic list if the current trajectory continues.
- Economic Collapse and Poverty
• Zimbabwe: Under ZANU-PF’s monopoly, hyperinflation reached 79.6 billion percent in 2008, wiping out savings and destroying livelihoods. Ordinary families could not afford bread, and pensions became worthless.
• Venezuela: Though not in Africa, its one-party drift under Chávez and Maduro shows how unchecked power can destroy an oil-rich economy. Citizens queue for food and medicine, while elites thrive.
• Nigeria’s risk: With defections driven by patronage rather than competence, economic policy becomes secondary. Inflation, unemployment, and currency depreciation hit households hardest, while politicians secure contracts and privileges. - Civil Unrest and Insecurity
• Cameroon: The CPDM’s arrogance of power fuelled the Anglophone crisis, displacing over 700,000 people and creating a humanitarian emergency.
• Kenya: KANU’s one-party dominance in the 1980s bred ethnic violence, leaving scars that took decades to heal.
• Nigeria’s risk: Already plagued by banditry, terrorism, and communal clashes, one-party dominance could worsen insecurity. When opposition voices are silenced, grievances spill into the streets, leading to protests, riots, and violent crackdowns. - Human Casualties and Migration
• Russia: Russia’s monopoly has led to wars in Ukraine and Chechnya, costing thousands of lives and displacing millions.
• Zimbabwe: Millions fled to South Africa and beyond, creating one of Africa’s largest migration crises.
• Nigeria’s risk: If governance continues to prioritize defections over citizens, more Nigerians will flee abroad. Already, over 1.3 million Nigerians emigrated between 2015 and 2022, many through dangerous routes across the Sahara and Mediterranean. - Collapse of Social Services
• One-party dominance often diverts resources to patronage networks instead of schools, hospitals, and infrastructure.
• In Zimbabwe, hospitals lacked basic medicines; in Cameroon, rural communities were abandoned.
• In Nigeria, defections mean loyalty is rewarded over competence. Governors who defect are shielded from accountability, while their states suffer poor healthcare, failing schools, and decaying roads. - Psychological Toll on Citizens
• Living under one-party dominance breeds hopelessness. Citizens lose faith in elections, believing outcomes are predetermined.
• Youth disengage from politics, seeing it as a game of survival for elites.
• This despair fuels crime, drug abuse, and migration, as people seek escape from a system that no longer serves them.
Nigeria’s Looming Human Cost
If defections continue unchecked, Nigeria faces:
• Worsening poverty as policies serve elites, not citizens.
• Escalating insecurity as silenced voices turn to unrest.
• Mass migration as citizens flees hopelessness.
• Collapse of trust in democracy, leaving future generations cynical and disengaged.
The gale of defections is not a harmless political game, it is the erosion of accountability, the silencing of dissent, and the betrayal of the people’s mandate.
The Call to Action
Nigeria must learn from history. The path of one-party dominance leads only to chaos, disaster, and human suffering.
The people must resist the arrogance of power and demand accountability. Civil society, the media, and the judiciary must stand firm against the erosion of democracy.
Opposition parties must not be cowed into submission. They must rebuild, re-strategize, and offer Nigerians a credible alternative. Democracy is not about the convenience of politicians, it is about the will of the people.
Nigeria stands at a crossroads.
The gale of defections to the ruling APC is a dangerous sign of creeping dictatorship.
At least four governors have defected from PDP to APC while in office, including recent high-profile moves in some other States. History teaches us that unchecked power breeds chaos, disasters, and human casualties.
From Zimbabwe to Russia, Cameroon to Kenya, the lessons are clear: democracy dies when opposition is silenced.
The Nigerian people must rise to defend their democracy. Greed and arrogance for power must not be allowed to destroy the nation.
The future of Nigeria depends on the courage of its people to resist the march toward one-party dominance and to insist on a democracy that truly serves the people.
Nigeria’s democracy will not be stolen in a single night but suffocated by defections, rubber stamp legislatures, and corrupt courts; unless the people resist, the nation will awaken not to hope renewal but to the silence of a one party state.
Dr. Zikirullahi is the Executive Director, Resource Centre for Human Rights & Civic Education (CHRICED)
