Olu Allen
In every healthy democracy, performance earns a mandate. That is the rule. But in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, we have developed a dangerous habit: rewarding effort instead of results. We cheer the “heart” of the reformer while ignoring the pain of the citizen.
Democracy is not a loyalty test; it is a performance review.
As someone who watched the hope of the Third Republic collapse under the weight of unkept promises, I can tell you that history does not record intentions. It records outcomes.
So, let us conduct a calm, data-driven audit of the current administration. Not as supporters, not as opponents, but as citizens demanding accountability.
Security: the territorial & human toll
The first duty of government is the control of security. When armed groups challenge that control, the state itself is being tested.
The Data: Security trackers such as the Nigeria Security Tracker (Council on Foreign Relations) and Beacon Security & Intelligence have consistently recorded thousands of fatalities from violent incidents across the country each year.
While kinetic operations by the military have intensified, so has the response from non-state actors. In recent years, we have even witnessed brazen attacks around military institutions in Kaduna, symbols once assumed to be untouchable.
The Reality: Farmers in the North cannot go to their farms safely. In the South-East, sit-at-home orders are enforced with deadly precision. Kidnapping has been democratized; it now targets the rich in their estates and the poor on the highways.
The Question: Is the geography of fear smaller or larger than it was in May 2023? Data suggests the frequency of mass abductions remains troubling, even as military operations increase.
Safety is not measured by press releases, but by the ability to travel the Abuja–Kaduna road at night. Can you?
The naira & the cost of living crisis
We are told the naira float is a necessary pain. With my little economic knowledge, I agree that the parallel market gap was unhealthy for the economy. However, the therapy should not kill the patient.
The Depreciation: Since the unification of exchange rates in June 2023, the naira has moved from an official rate of about N460/$ to well above N1,500/$ at the parallel market at its peak, a depreciation of more than 200%.
While it has recently stabilized somewhat due to Central Bank interventions, the damage to purchasing power has already been felt.
The Inflation Spiral: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) placed inflation above 33% in 2024, with food inflation exceeding 40%.
The Consequence: “Money not reaching” is not just a complaint; it is an economic reality. When a currency loses two-thirds of its value, the savings of the middle class are wiped out.
Traders restock at prices that double within weeks. Macroeconomic stability means little if the everyday economy is in cardiac arrest.
Poverty: the expansion of the vulnerable
Nigeria is now paradoxically cited among countries with the largest populations living in extreme poverty. While the World Bank acknowledges some reform efforts, their own data shows the shock to citizens is severe.
The Figures: The World Bank estimates that over 100 million Nigerians live below the international poverty line of $2.15 per day.
The removal of the petrol subsidy, while fiscally prudent, also removed a long-standing cushion that artificially suppressed transport and food costs for millions of urban poor.
The “Mass Market” Contraction: In Lagos, Kano, and other major markets, the everyday “mass market” economy, products like snacks, sachet water, and low-cost staples, is shrinking.
Manufacturers are downsizing package sizes and production volumes because consumers are buying less.
The Question: Is the purchasing power of the average Nigerian higher today than it was two years ago? If the majority of citizens feel poorer, aggregate GDP numbers offer little comfort.
The popular defense: “fixing the foundation.”
To be intellectually honest, we must address the administration’s defense: that these reforms are fixing Nigeria’s economic foundation.
The Positives: Yes, government revenues have increased following subsidy removal. Yes, FAAC allocations to states have grown. Yes, the debt service-to-revenue ratio is gradually improving.
These are real developments.
The Historical Parallel: Nigeria has heard this language before. During earlier economic restructuring periods, governments also promised that temporary hardship would yield long-term gains.
But citizens live in the present. A government cannot ask families to eat future prosperity today.
The Concern: We risk creating a two-speed Nigeria: a government that is financially richer, serving a populace that is economically poorer.
The Audit Question
Democracy allows for a mid-term audit. So here it is:
If you compare the Human Development Index indicators, life expectancy, education access, and standard of living, from May 2023 to today, is the trajectory improving?
If you compare the misery index, the combined pressure of unemployment and inflation, are we moving forward or backward?
Conclusion: The verdict of History
A second term should not be a reward for showing up. It should be a commission for a job well done.
The government has made tough policy choices that economists may applaud. But Nigerian families are not textbooks; they are ledgers of pain and gain.
If the pain was the price of reform, Nigerians deserve to see the dividend.
Until that dividend reaches the streets, until citizens feel safer and their purchasing power begins to recover, the question will remain:
Are we building a new Nigeria, or simply asking Nigerians to endure indefinitely?
That is the question.
Answer it.
Allen writes from Kano, he writes on public affairs and promote good governance.
