Olu Allen
When Osun’s local government allocations were withheld over APC–PDP turf wars, it wasn’t governance; it was a rigging rehearsal. Today’s off-season elections are 2027’s prologue.
They test not just opposition resolve but whether Nigeria’s democracy survives its own machinery of capture.
Let’s speak plainly: Nigerian elections are auctions where thugs, cash, and state power determine winners. The opposition’s cries of foul ring hollow when PDP factions sabotage themselves while APC weaponizes federal agencies.
Rigging isn’t an aberration; it’s our operating system. To expect fairness from INEC or security forces is a delusion.
Remember: INEC’s promise of electronic transmission in 2023 collapsed not from “technical glitches” but coordinated shutdowns and “missing” BVAS machines. The question is: what’s being beta-tested for 2027 this August?
Why Reform Theater Fails
INEC is captive. When courts rule that INEC’s digital safeguards “lack force of law,” as they did with IReV in 2023, it becomes open season for rigging. An institution funded and staffed by the executive cannot punish its masters.
Thugs wear uniforms. Security forces aren’t referees; they’re accessories. Research shows police and military collusion enables ballot-snatching and voter suppression, especially in opposition strongholds.
Citizens are complicit. Millions traded PVCs for ₦5,000 noodles in 2023. We blame INEC while pocketing bribes. Rigging thrives where civic courage dies.
Strategic Fixes (Without Fairy Tales)
Forget the slogans. Real solutions look like this:
Independent INEC appointments and funding, insulated from the executive, so the umpire isn’t a player.
Mobile electoral tribunals with powers to prosecute vote buyers and seize their assets within days, not years. Make rigging economically toxic.
Citizen parallel vote tallies using USSD/SMS backups, because technology can fail but organized people don’t.
Rewards for whistleblowers, so thugs with camera phones can expose their paymasters.
The Stakes for 2027
Anambra’s 2025 governorship poll isn’t a rehearsal; it’s the last exit ramp before 2027. If August’s elections see federal might crush local will, we normalize dictatorship. But imagine instead: 10,000 youth observer brigades trained in evidence-gathering, mobile courts jailing vote buyers within 72 hours, and citizens refusing to sell their votes. That’s how rigging unravels.
Nigeria doesn’t need more promises. It needs enforced consequences. And it needs citizens who will defend their democracy, even when the system tries to cheapen it.
If 2027 is to be different, it won’t be because INEC suddenly found integrity. It will be because Nigerians—youth, civil society, religious leaders, market women- stood together to demand it. Our democracy is battered, but not beyond repair.
The future will belong to those who refuse to sell it.
Nigeria deserves elections where victory is earned, not stolen. That hope is still alive. The question is: will we fight for it, or auction it off once again?
—Olu Allen is a writer and educator based in Kano. He writes on public affairs and governance and can be reached at mrallenolu@gmail.com.
