Nigeria’s economy strengthened in the third quarter of 2025, recording a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.98% year-on-year, slightly ahead of the 3.86% posted in the same period of 2024.
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) paints a picture of broad-based expansion, driven largely by agricultural output, renewed industrial activity and steady gains across several service-based industries.
According to the NBS, the Q3 numbers reflect a more resilient economic environment compared to last year, with agriculture and industry showing notable improvements.
Agriculture, which remains a key pillar of Nigeria’s non-oil economy, grew by 3.79% in real terms, up from 2.55% in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
The bureau attributed the growth largely to stronger crop production and improved seasonal output, supported by moderating inflationary pressures and better access to inputs in some regions.
Industrial growth also accelerated, rising to 3.77% from 2.78% recorded a year earlier. This improvement signals gradual recovery in activities such as manufacturing, construction, and utilities, sectors that have been adjusting to exchange rate volatility and higher energy costs.
The NBS noted that while the Services sector slowed marginally, from 4.97% in Q3 2024 to 4.15%, it still maintained its dominance as the largest contributor to the economy.
Services accounted for 53.02% of GDP in Q3 2025, slightly higher than the 52.93% recorded in the same quarter last year.
In nominal terms, the size of the economy expanded sharply. Aggregate nominal GDP grew to N113.59 trillion, up from N96.16 trillion in Q3 2024, representing an 18.12% year-on-year increase.
Analysts say this nominal expansion reflects both underlying real-sector improvements and the impact of inflation on price levels across the economy.
The oil sector posted mixed outcomes during the period.
Nigeria’s average crude oil production increased to 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd), an improvement from the 1.47 mbpd posted in Q3 2024, although slightly lower than the 1.68 mbpd recorded in Q2 2025.
Real growth in the sector reached 5.84%, higher than the 5.66% growth recorded in the same quarter of 2024, but significantly below the strong 20.46% posted in the previous quarter.
This sharp slowdown, amounting to a drop of 14.62 percentage points, was attributed to a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 5.53%, partly influenced by short-lived operational disruptions, ongoing pipeline repairs and fluctuations in global oil prices.
Despite this, the sector’s contribution to real GDP edged up modestly to 3.44%, compared to 3.38% in Q3 2024, though it declined from 4.05% in Q2 2025.
The non-oil sector, which continues to serve as the backbone of Nigeria’s economic growth, expanded by 3.91% in real terms.
This surpassed both the 3.79% growth rate recorded in Q3 2024 and the 3.64% achieved in the second quarter of 2025.
Key drivers included agriculture, telecommunications, real estate, financial institutions, construction, manufacturing, and trade.
The non-oil economy accounted for 96.56% of total real GDP, slightly below the 96.62% recorded last year but higher than 95.95% in the previous quarter.
The Mining and Quarrying sector, which comprises crude petroleum, coal mining, metal ores and other minerals, faced notable challenges, contracting sharply in nominal terms by 41.08% year-on-year.
Economists say this decline underscores the structural difficulties within Nigeria’s extractive industries, despite modest gains in crude oil output.
Overall, the Q3 GDP report indicates a cautiously strengthening economy. While the oil sector’s performance remained volatile, stronger agricultural output and continued momentum in industrial and service activities helped lift overall growth.
As policymakers navigate ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms, the sustainability of these gains will depend heavily on continued diversification efforts, price stability, infrastructure expansion and investor confidence in the coming quarters.
