Olu Allen
Rivers politics has always been theatre. But in the past year, it has become Nigeria’s most gripping reality show. Governor Siminalayi Fubara, after six months of emergency rule imposed by President Bola Tinubu, has returned to Government House amid massive public jubilation.
His supporters see him as a survivor. His opponents are scrambling to understand his next move.
At the centre of the drama looms one question: can Fubara step out of the shadow of Nyesom Wike, his predecessor and now Minister of the FCT? Or will he remain tethered to a political godfather who no longer commands the same grip on Rivers?
The fading Wike factor
Wike has styled himself as the architect of Rivers politics for more than a decade.
He openly claimed to have “spoken with Fubara” before the governor’s reinstatement, casting himself as a mediator. But the truth is, his influence is weakening.
The PDP in Rivers has distanced itself from him after his romance with the APC. And with Fubara firmly back in office, Wike’s arsenal looks depleted.
Fubara’s conduct during the crisis, keeping silent, refusing to openly challenge the federal government, and insisting later that his restraint was for “peace and stability”, was a study in calculation. What appeared to be passivity now looks like a strategy.
Why Tinubu needs Fubara
For President Tinubu, 2027 is already on the horizon. Securing allies in the South-South, especially in oil-rich Rivers, is non-negotiable. Rivers offers three things Tinubu cannot ignore:
- Popular legitimacy – The airport and Government House crowds on Fubara’s return signalled massive public backing. Tinubu admires politicians who can command the street.
- Economic leverage – With oil and tax revenues flowing, Rivers is an economic heavyweight that can support federal priorities.
- Political stability – A stable Rivers, free of endless infighting, strengthens Tinubu’s national standing.
By aligning directly with Tinubu, Fubara can transform from embattled governor into indispensable partner.
The quiet strategy
The path forward does not require loud confrontation with Wike. It requires quiet, deliberate positioning:
Praise Abuja, sideline the past: In public speeches, Fubara should credit Tinubu for restoring peace while resisting the urge to mention Wike. Silence can wound more than words.
Direct channels: Private meetings with Tinubu should be deepened. Negotiations on Rivers’ development, federal projects, and political alignment must happen without intermediaries.
Narrative control: Through social media and local optics, Fubara should amplify the message that his mandate comes directly from Rivers’ people, not from Abuja fixers or past governors.
Strategic accountability: If scrutiny of past administrations becomes necessary, it must be done carefully and with Tinubu’s backing. The mere prospect of investigation keeps Wike off balance.
The potential prize
The rewards for Fubara are significant. Breaking with Wike secures his political autonomy. With Tinubu’s support, he can inoculate himself against further impeachment attempts or federal interventions.
More importantly, he positions himself as a central South-South figure in the ruling coalition. That visibility will matter not just in 2027, but in whatever political role comes after.
This is a chance to graduate from protégé to power broker. Few Nigerian governors get such a window.
The risks ahead
Wike will not retreat quietly. His remaining loyalists will push back. But stripped of Rivers’ machinery, his reach is already limited.
The real danger lies in perception. Critics will brand Fubara a “sellout” for aligning with Tinubu. To counter this, he must frame his decisions as pragmatic governance, choosing Rivers’ peace and development over endless ego battles.
In Nigerian politics, survival often hinges not on fighting every battle, but on choosing which ones to avoid.
Fubara stands at a crossroads. He can remain tethered to a fading godfather, or he can leverage his fresh legitimacy to cut a direct line to the presidency. The first option keeps him subordinate. The second makes him a player in the national game.
The calculation is obvious. Align with Tinubu. Sideline Wike. Use Rivers’ resources, popularity, and strategic importance to cement his place.
If Fubara plays it right, Rivers will not just emerge from a constitutional crisis intact; it will have a governor who has finally stepped out of the shadows and learned how to rule.
Olu Allen lives in Kano, he writes on public affairs and promote good governance.
