Ahmed Yahaya-Joe
“History is a vast early warning system.” – Norman Cousins (1915-1990)
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu might be a consummate champion in local politics, but obviously a very poor student (despite his numerous visits to France) of how Bonaparte elaborately describes a sandwich of distraction and flanking as “manoeuvre sur les derrieres.”
The moral here is even brilliant men are capable of blunders as famously exemplified at the epic Battle of Isandlwana fought between the armies of the Zulu nation commanded by their warrior-king 1816-1828, Shaka kaSenzangakhona and that of the British led by Lt. General Lord Chelmsford (1827-1905) along the plains of Nqutu and Angua valley of present-day South Africa nearly 150 years ago.
The timeless adaptable lesson involved should be very instructive to not only Asiwaju, his handlers and support base but also to a motley of his opponents including the rest of us from useful idiots to useful innocents.
On January 21, 1879 the Zulus headed into battle deploying what they had conceived as the “horns, chest, and loins,” of a metaphoric buffalo;
“The chest was the central part of the battle line, which would hold and pin the enemy force.
Meanwhile, the horns to either side would encircle it, moving in to the sides and rear. The tip of one horn stayed hidden behind tall grass and boulders; when it emerged to complete the encirclement, it gave the British a nasty psychological shock.
The loins were a reserve force kept back to be thrown in for the coup de grace. These men actually stood with their backs to the battle, so as not to grow overly excited and rush in before the right moment.”
– p.247 33 Strategies of War (2006) by Robert Greene
On the CPC designation of Nigeria by the US leader the “chest” that held and pinned down the Tinubu administration is inadvertently the increased practice of cartel politics by the ruling behemoth APC in the build-up of 2027 against the background of a spate of dysfunctional opposition parties in Nigeria’s political terrain;
“A cartel political party is a party which uses the resources of the state to maintain its position within the political system, colluding with other parties in a way similar to a cartel.
The premise is that the parties do not compete with one another being post-political, but rather collude to protect their collective interests and keep outsider parties from being viable.”
– Democracy and the Cartelization of Political Parties (2018) by Richard Katz and Peter Mair
Meanwhile, the bespoke “horns” are twofold.
First, was “hidden behind the tall grass” which shows that open-source intelligence analysis by various credible bodies have now established with accompanying forensic evidence that many social media networks and quite a number of self-styled influencers affiliated to the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) played a very prominent role in pushing the “Christian genocide” narrative in Nigeria from as far as back as 2016.
Take for instance the findings by TheCable;
“Data from X (formerly Twitter) between January 1 and October 1, 2025 showed over 165,000 mentions of the topic reaching an estimated 2.83 billion people worldwide a figure more than 12 times the Nigerian population.”
The second horn is the March 12, 2025 Capitol Hill testimony of the Guma-born Bishop Wilfred Anagbe, Catholic diocesan of Makurdi beside Tony Perkins, a former chair of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom – the very State Department body responsible for the global due diligence before any nation is designated CPC or not.
Anagbe was at the House Foreign Affairs Committee over prior attacks 3 months before that of June 13-14. Notably, his appearance on February 14, 2024 was when he quite elaborately described the situation in Benue and others parts of Nigeria’s Middle Belt as “genocidal persecution of Christians” in his detailed testimony.
Why wasn’t the Nigerian mission in DC present at both hearings to offer the counter-narratives as being presently touted by the federal government?
Then came an Isandlwana-like “coup de grace” delivered via the Angelus from the Vatican, a 12-noon prayer led by any given Pope every Sunday from a window at the Apostolic Palace St. Peter’s Square since 1954 under Pope Pius XII.
That of Pope Leo XIV on June 15, 2025 was no different televised across the globe to millions of the Catholic faithful probably even including US Secretary of State Marc Rubio, Ted Cruz among others;
“During the night between 13 and 14 June, a terrible massacre took place in the city of Yelwata, located in the local administrative area of Guoman (Guma) in the state of Benue, Nigeria. Around two hundred were killed with killed with extreme cruelty.”
The onetime Francis Cardinal Prevost who was billed to visit Nigeria in July before he was elected as Pontiff on May 8, 2025 after a brief exhortation concluded;
“I pray that security, justice and peace prevail in Nigeria, a beloved that has suffered various forms of violence. I pray in particular for the rural communities in the state of Benue, who have increasingly been victims of violence.”
Perhaps if Nigeria had had an ambassador to Italy with a letter of credence to the Vatican, His or Her Excellency would have promptly notified President Tinubu of the obvious diplomatic red flag of His Holiness mentioning Nigeria ahead of the atrocious situation in Sudan in his Angelus.
Such a monumental lacuna is unforgivable in international relations. Is the Villa even aware that between November 2001 and September 2016 the Pope had visited 9 times each time travelling extensively across Nigeria?
Recall the future Pope first visited barely a month after the Sharia riots in Kano also a year or so after previous Sharia riots in Kaduna. He was present at the episcopal ordination of the Catholic Bishop of Kano then under the Sharia dispensation of Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau.
His next visit back then was after the 2011 post-election fallout and Christmas Day bombing of St. Theresa’s at Madalla.
Even without an ambassador to Italy accredited to Vatican City the federal government would have sent a special envoy to directly engage the Roman Curia to salvage the diplomatic collateral damage before the situation culminated into a CPC designation across the Atlantic. Shuttle diplomacy is obviously not part of Tinubu’s governance modus operandi.
“We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual friends. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” – Lord Palmerston, British Prime Minister 1855-1858, 1859-1865
Palmerston was not a man of religious faith. Rather he worshipped at the altar of gunboat diplomacy who as a foot soldier of imperialism, he was able to deftly kill three birds with one stone in pre-colonial Lagos.
This was by skilfully aligning British commercial interests of abolishing the extremely lucrative trade in slaves that was the oxygen of the local economy with that of the power tussle between Obas Kosoko and Akitoye all the while factoring the evangelical aspirations of the Church Mission Society (CMS) and visceral fears of the “Saros” – a very marginalized and deeply prosecuted minority in Lagos.
Palmerston then as Foreign Secretary had no compunction in ordering the British consul to the Bight of Benin and Biafra (now Gulf of Guinea), John Beecroft (1790-1854) to unleash a very horrific cannonade on Lagos still described in local parlance as “Ogun Agidingbi” between 26th-28th December, 1851.
Oba Akitoye (d.1853) who was monarch in 1841 until after his dethronement in 1845 by his nephew Oba Kosoko (d.1872) had prior written the British from exile at Badagry pleading;
“My humble prayer is that you would take Lagos under you and plant the English flag there, and that you would re-establish me on my rightful throne at Lagos.”
While Kosoko was in turn dethroned in 1851 by British fiat elsewhere;
“Eight years after being admitted into the ministry as a priest by the Bishop of London, Crowther was received by Queen Victoria and (her husband) Prince Albert in November 1851 at Windsor Castle.
“Both the Queen and the Prince studied a map showing Lagos and Abeokuta and displayed great interest in the area’s trade. When Queen Victoria asked what the solution could be for slave trade in the West African coast, Ajayi replied, ‘Seize Lagos by fire and by force.’”
In conclusion, the moral of history here is as sentinel warning. President Trump’s sabre-rattling within the context America’s grand strategy should be a wake-up call for much needed introspection in our nation.
This in retrospect it points directly to the missing ingredient during the power tussle between Obas Akitoye and Kosoko. Their mutual lack of consensus made the resort to “by fire and by force” inevitable.
Perhaps why we still retain the name NNS Beecroft as “cradle of service” of the Nigerian Navy in Lagos as a metaphor lest we forget Kristin Mann writes in her 2007 book entitled Slavery and the Birth of an African City “The British bombardment opened Lagos to Christian missionaries.” -p.93
This writer therefore reckons just like Palmerston needed an intractable pretext to deploy British firepower 174 years ago to Lagos, for Trump to protect his nation’s strategic interests in present-day Nigeria, he similarly needs “useful innocents” that irreconcilable circumstances have pushed to the wall by local dynamics.
Concluded.
