By Ahmed Yahaya-Joe
Between highly ornamental trophy wives from Agadez in Kano and an awful lot of steaming tea under the hot Niamey sun, the moral in President Tinubu’s initial “shakara oloje” ECOWAS ultimatum is simply, “Never issue an order that cannot be obeyed.”
Agreed, Viscount Montgomery of Alamein puts it that, “Indecision and hesitation are fatal in any officer; In a Commander-in-Chief they are criminal.”
It is however the leader of the October Revolution of 1917, Vladimir Lenin that appears to fully understand the dynamics of “gra-gra”;
“Probe with bayonets; if you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”
But since PBAT is not a Communist, what exactly is the French translation of “……At all cost, fight for it, grab it, snatch it, and run with it.”?
Let it, therefore, be known from Kano’s Mandawari to Warure across the entire seven states of the North along the international including Salmanduna to Mabuga in Zazzau (because there is an entire neighborhood in Maradi known as Zaria), the intricacies of international politics are more much complicated than orchestrating “rofo-rofo” at Ojuleagba or even Oshodi.
Understandably, the Villa desperately needs some sabre rattling against Niger as a form of distraction from increasing political teething problems.
But if the ECOWAS “standby force” is eventually mobilized against Niger which side are the good people of Argungu in Kebbi and Wanke in Zamfara states respectively expected to be on?
When April 11, 1999, Major Daouda Malam Wanke as head of President Ibrahim Ba’are Mainassara’s presidential guard took over power he promised free and fair elections down the line which he delivered on December 22 that same year.
President Mamadou Tanja (the first none Hausa leader in Niger) was duly voted and sworn-into office after a credible process adjudged better than the one that Mainassara used in transmuting himself from a military dictator to a civilian leader.
Major Wanke then retired back to his ancestral home in Nigeria.
How credible was the process that brought former President Bazoum (the second non-Hausa leader in that country) to office in 2021?
Has anybody asked the current military rulers about their transition program?
Who particularly is the dolt that recommended sending former coup plotters during their own time in Nigeria on shuttle diplomacy to Niger?
Little wonder, the junta leader in Niamey refused to see them because as they say in the Niger Delta region, “Dog, no dey eat dog.”
The message is therefore clear when the Nigerien strongman, General Abdourahamane Tchiani instead received in the audience the 14th Fulani Emir of Kano, the man formerly known as Sanusi Lamido Sanusi.
An obvious rebuff at the Caliphate in Nigeria as Sanusi was accompanied by the Sultan of Damagaran, which is historically a vassal kingdom under Borno that has never had allegiance to Sokoto.
That third largest city in Niger (after Niamey and Maradi) is where interestingly the remnant entourage of the last Hausa king of Kano, Muhammadu Alwali finally escaped to after their brief sojourn in Zaria in 1806 and narrow escape from Burumburum in 1807.
How can Asiwaju adjust his sails to the prevailing winds to help him skilfully navigate these conflicting optics?
One hopes, Mr. President will be more circumspect with a section of Nigeria that he has a solid support base not frittering away that enormous political goodwill so soon in the game.
Permit me to briefly digress:
As they say in Agadez, “Wan, iyen. Wan, ashin. Wan, karad.” – The first round is bitter, like life. The second round is sweet, like love. The third round is light, like the breath of death – Reminiscent of three tiny cups of thrice daily “eshadid” mainly of grounded “na-nah” green peppermint tea leaves simply known as “gunpowder” in local parlance.
The actual formula is always guaranteed to elicit an “Ikna” (well done) from the “other room” is said to be perhaps more secretive than that of Coca-Cola which is interestingly said to also include “Gum Arabic” widely prevalent in Niger.
So, don’t ask me why the men that have a proclivity for the kind of tea served in those tiny cups known as “enfanjar” are always veiled instead of their ladies – instead ask R. Armstrong, a Briton who published in 1967, The Nightwatchmen of Kano – about the fathers of those sparkling Agadez ladies in that ancient city.
As I was saying, this is not to say that in Nigeria we do not have pressing concerns with our Francophone neighbours in Niger.
In 2025, the 130MW Kandadji hydroelectric dam is billed to be commissioned. It is located 180 km northwards away from Niamey along the River Niger.
No doubt, the implications of any dip in water level that it will certainly bring about will be dire for the economy of our nation.
But how did the Nigeriens so easily get away with such a massive construction project since 2017 to our national detriment in clear-cut violations of various treaties from 1960-1980 without sanction from former President Buhari?
That is the background PBAT should try to conscientiously investigate before allowing ECOWAS to beat any drumbeats of war around his vicinity.
The Villa under Tinubu must also significantly realize the Nigerian and Nigerien militaries arguably have a common denominator as ascribed to ours specifically by the historian Max Siollun, “With no external enemies to fight, military heroism (tends) to be sought in the political arena rather than on the battlefield.” – Soldiers of Fortune, Nigerian Politics From Buhari to Babangida, 1983-1993 (2013) p.4
Is President Tinubu aware that the new military leader in Niger was nominated by Bazoum to attend the 2022 batch of Nigeria’s National Defence College in Abuja but the head of the presidential guard outright refused?
So, he should beware of serving generals who brazenly defy orders. Back in April 1983 a certain GOC publicly disobeyed President Shagari’s orders in Chad. Former President Bazoum must therefore be a very poor student of history.
I hope no Nigerian general would (openly) disagree with his boss on the ECOWAS “standby force” against Niger.
Afghanistan is not called the graveyard of empires without good reason. Tsarist Russia, the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and eventually the United States and its allies all massively invaded and left in defeat.
Millennia and a half before, exactly the same befell the beloved son of Olympias as Captain Pete Mitchell of the Intelligence branch, Canadian Army based in Kandahar explains;
“Alexander the Great marched into this graveyard about 2,500 years ago. Easy to march in, hard to march out. His words.
He and his mother wrote to each other all the time. One day, he got a letter from her saying:
“What the hell? You conquered most of the known world in a day and a half, what are you doing bogged down in Afghanistan?”
He grabbed a bag shoveled it full of dirt and had it sent back to Greece with a message to his mother:
“Take this dirt and dump it around the palace, see what happens.”
“So Alexander’s mother spread the dirt all around the palace.
Later that night, a couple of attendants showed up to make sure she was alright. One says: “Go ahead, after you.” And the other says: “No, after you.”
And the first one says: “No, I insist.” And the second one says: “Don’t you tell me what to do.” They pull their swords and go at it till they kill each other.
Alexander’s mother watched all this and wrote a note to him saying: “Okay, okay, now I get it.”
And he wrote back saying:
“Even the dirt is hostile. In Afghanistan, dogs fight dogs, birds fight birds, and men kill men.”
View details in the true-life movie, Hyena Road (2015)
With the French perhaps soon to pull out out of Niger and the Russia Bear set to entrench itself in the arid sands that co-hosted the bloody Battle of Tsuntua in December 1804 to the total razing of Birnin Yan’ doto to the ground completely burning down its famed university library in 1805 after nearly two centuries of existence.
The massacre of the Gobirawa at Gawakuke on March 9, 1836.
The decisive Battle of Kwatorkwashi in 1903 where the British humbled Sokoto by decimating Kano’s cavalry in the process.
Then the scorched earth tactics of the combined British and Sokoto forces against the Mahdists in 1906 permanently wiped Satiru off any map to date – President Tinubu is no Alexander the Great.
He should not also aspire to be Ojo Aburukumaku in Niger – certainly to be, “easy to march in, hard to march out.”
According to Dr. Lasisi Olagunju, the title of, “Field Marshal General in Old Oyo, Aare Ona Kakanfo was like the warrior Achilles in Homer’s Iliad whose fate as explained to him by his mother, Thetis, was either to die young and gain glory or to live a long boring life in obscurity. When Ojo Aburukumaku (meaning: the wicked will always live long) was installed as the 11th Aare in 1860, Yorubaland was so peaceful that he had to foment a civil war in Ogbomosho which he preceded to suppress with uncommon brutality just to justify his title.”
Can Mr. President recall that in May 2020 the Senator representing Sokoto East openly declared at plenary on the state of insecurity in his constituency,
“The situation is so bad that we only get help from Niger Republic and not from Nigeria at all, be it from the military or the Police.
The affected people cannot perpetually be at the mercy of Nigerien soldiers and still expect to proudly see themselves as Nigerians,” he went on, “It is only the Nigerien Army that had been coming to their rescue while the Nigerian Army looks the other way round.
In fact, based on very reliable and verifiable information from the area, many times, the people of the affected areas called on the Nigerian Army for help and protection against the bandits, no response. But graciously, the Nigerien Army has been assisting in wading off the bandits,”
Agreed, it was three years ago but has the new Commander in Chief adequately understood the dynamics of why that untold situation happened in the first place or maybe still happening?
Meanwhile, Mahmud Jega instructively adds in, Bandit Bello Turji, King of Gobir posted on December 13th, 2021;
“The last major battle in this region took place 185 years ago. At that Battle of Gawakuke, Caliph Muhammadu Bello assembled and personally led an allied force that, in one day, crushed a large rebel army using horses, spears, swords, bows, and arrows. We expect to see very soon a Nigerian Army General, at the head of a force of tanks, APCs, machine guns, helicopters, and Super Tucanos speaking to Bello Turji in the language he understands.”
If the operation Malam Jega had hoped for two years ago didn’t happen under the last dispensation why hasn’t it under the present one?
Is PBAT concerned that on the data catalogue of the World Bank metadata which was last updated as recent as July 14, 2023, just a fortnight or so before as ECOWAS chairman he co-issued an ultimatum to Niamey;
“Nigerian refugees and asylum seekers represent the largest population of Persons of Concern in Niger with a total of 187,065 under the UNHCR Mandate as per the 2021 figures. Intention surveys are regularly conducted by the UNHCR as part of its durable solution to displacement. This survey was conducted between August and September 2021 in the Diffa region of Niger,”
Mr. President, why are so many of our citizens still refugees and asylum seekers in Niger under your watch, sir?
While awaiting Mr. President’s answers, kindly pass on the “eshadid” and please, be sure to make it the prescribed three “enfanjar”!
