Nigeria failed to meet its 2025 crude oil production target, producing 530.41 million barrels of crude, well below the 766.5 million barrels projected in the year’s budget, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).Money market trends
The shortfall of 166.86 million barrels occurred despite the country earning approximately N55.5 trillion from crude oil sales, up from N50.88 trillion in 2024.
The revenue estimate is based on the total crude output multiplied by an average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel and converted at an exchange rate of N1,450 per dollar.
NUPRC figures show that production was inconsistent throughout the year. Nigeria started strongly in January with 47.7 million barrels, but output dipped to 41.02 million barrels in February.
Production recovered modestly in March and April, then remained relatively stable through the second quarter. The third quarter saw another slump, with a yearly low of 41.69 million barrels in September, before slightly rebounding in the final months of the year.
The underperformance meant Nigeria struggled to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, achieving or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July. By December, daily output had dropped to 1.422 million barrels, equivalent to 95 per cent of the allocated quota.
Crude prices offered some relief. Bonny Light traded at $80.76 per barrel in January, before falling to $65.90 in May, then stabilising around $70–$73 per barrel in the third quarter.
Using the 10-month average of $72.08 per barrel, gross revenue from crude was estimated at $38.23 billion (N55.5 trillion).
Analysts, however, caution that these figures represent gross revenue, not actual government receipts, which would be reduced by production costs, joint venture obligations, domestic supply commitments, oil theft, and deferred liftings.
(Business Hallmark)
