By Ahmed Yahaya-Joe
“The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.” – Otto von Bismarck, Chancellor of Germany 1871-1890.
Back when Kano governor, Abdullahi Ganduje conferred with thousands of tea sellers selected from 484 wards of 44 local government areas, he humongously empowered them. Many Nigerians could neither carefully read nor properly interpret the dynamics involved.
A tea seller’s table is the nearest equivalent to a community conference table as can be where introductions are made and friendships deepened, business deals sealed, warring parties instigated and reconciled, societal pressure monitored and manipulated, nuggets of gossip disseminated or squashed but more importantly where local and national political temperatures are measured and analytically dissected.
This innocuous setting is also where loyalties are established and betrayed including marriages arranged and dissolved.
Ignore any stack of packaged beverages on any Mai Shayi’s table.
The main issue is inside that constantly steaming cauldron brewed with condiments ranging from Moroccan mint to Chinese gunpowder with various roots and herbs from as far as Mauritania with exotic spices from Chad and beyond Sudan in a chemistry that capable of belittling Coke’s secret formula any day.
Has anybody noticed the apparently coordinated severity of the August 1 protests in Kano?
While there are local dynamics involved very disturbing are tri-color Russian flags joining the fray against the background chants of “Putin” and “Mulkin soja” – Military rule!
Undoubtedly, this public relations disaster was carefully targeted and deliberately planned.
And beyond the national embarrassment caused the surreptitious mobilization and organizational genius involved is not only a direct indictment of our democratic credentials but a poor reflection on the current ECOWAS chairman;
“Oh, those Russians.” – Boney M in Rasputin (1978)
How many Nigerians are aware of the Liptako-Gourma insecurity blackhole in the Sahel and its proximity to our nation?
This is where the borders of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger Republic intersect along River Niger in adjacency with Benin Republic to our west.
For Nigeria to be well secured that region must be tamed.
But how can that happen without President Tinubu reaching out to the Russians who are the military partners of those nations in the crisis-prone area?
Truth however is “Mulkin soja” will not just drop from the sky because mobs of clueless protesting youths demand it, particularly after 25 years of unbroken civilian democracy in Nigeria so far.
But we have to be very careful about certain prevailing winds mostly from residual electoral rancor as we saw from neighboring Niger Republic in 2023 when former President Mohamed Bazoum refused to allow the Nigerien opposition to breathe under a national unity government.
With the benefit of hindsight, General Ibrahim Babangida recalls;
“By 1983 when we voted, everybody was not happy; there were complaints over this and that; and the frustration built gradually. We found the coup easier when there was frustration in the land.”
See details in ThisDay newspaper edition February 12, 2009
Mr. President is interestingly also a Shayi aficionado of sorts according to his Man Friday;
“Tinubu is a difficult personality; very complicated for me to classify.
He revels in controversies but constantly suppresses attendant difficult pains of disappointments and betrayals by consuming cups of strong expresso and chains of cigarettes.”
See details in My Participations (2021) by Chief Bisi Akande
Expresso is a highly concentrated form of coffee produced by forcing hot water under high pressure through finely ground coffee beans. The highest notch is known as “Black Ivory” which costs up to USD2,500 per kilogram.
Produced in Thailand after the Arabica beans have been harvested they are exclusively fed to select elephants undergoing a natural fermentation process in those animals’ digestive systems. After being passed out the waste is processed and packaged for high-net-worth expresso drinkers around the world readily available in Banana Island supermarkets.
The moral here is obvious;
“Nigeria is not Lagos.”
When President Tinubu eventually comes around dropping by to confer with the Nigerien strongman Abdourahamane Tchiani he would be warmly welcomed with three cups of Shayi in local parlance referred to as “Eshadid.”
The first is extremely bitter called “Wan-iyen.”
The second very sweetened called “Wan-ashin.”
The third is in-between called “Wan-karad.”
Since the power of any Presidency comes from the man and not the office how does the Russian leader Putin assess his Nigerian counterpart and vice versa?
While one is a former KGB colonel with a proven track record of being of international nuisance value against the West and the other is an accomplished kingmaker who against the run of play became king albeit whose political trajectory might not have necessarily involved a background in high-level diplomatic subterfuge.
Onetime US ambassador to Ghana, Shirley Temple (1928-2014) gives a retrospective insight on how the various superpowers operate on the African continent which the handlers of Mr. President should find instructive;
“The Soviets’ national sport is chess and their foreign policy reflects an effort at long-range planning of coordinated, integrated moves. The Chinese are notorious for planning their foreign policy carefully, with moves designed to reach fruition even years beyond the lifetimes of present leaders. In contrast, the United States is a poker player. It picks up whatever cards it is dealt, and plays, raising the stakes as more cards are dealt, until the hand is won or lost. Then after a drag on the cigarette and another sip of whiskey, it looks around for the next hand to be played.”
– In Search of Enemies: CIA Story (1978) by John Stockwell
What then in response is Nigeria’s foreign policy game plan?
The question is pertinent because the US and France have all been expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Yet, the Americans are currently building their largest embassy in the world over here.
Will our nation eventually become a proxy battlefield for international power struggle?
Recall in preceding military coups Malian, Burkinabe, and Nigerien protesters had chanted “Putin” waving Russian flags!
President Tinubu needs to therefore fundamentally reinvent himself on the international scene to assiduously secure his national constituency. Intense negotiations with Moscow cannot be completely ruled out. But may the diplomatic neophyte beware that according to Churchill;
“Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”
Even as a second-term ECOWAS chairman, Asiwaju has neither flown into Niamey, Bamako nor Ouagadougou yet.
As they say in the Niger Delta region; “Waka remain.”
