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Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to remain in office despite a stinging defeat in the upper house elections that saw his ruling coalition lose its majority.
The election, held on Sunday, reflected mounting public dissatisfaction over rising inflation, political scandals, and anxiety about U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito secured just 47 out of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-member upper chamber.
“I solemnly accept this harsh result,” Ishiba said after polls closed, adding that his administration would focus on ongoing trade talks. He gave no indication of stepping down.
Coalition Faces Weakened Influence
This latest blow comes after the ruling coalition lost its grip on the more powerful lower house last year. Sunday’s results further weaken its influence, raising doubts about Ishiba’s political future.
Analysts say voter frustration played a key role, driven by the rising cost of living—especially staple goods like rice—and a perception that Ishiba has failed to lead decisively.
“Many conservative voters believe Ishiba lacks the nationalist stance of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,” said Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies. “That’s opened the door for more right-wing challengers.”
Sanseito’s Surprise Surge
Among the biggest winners in the election was the far-right Sanseito party, which jumped from one to 14 seats. Led by Sohei Kamiya, Sanseito has drawn comparisons to Trump-era populism for its anti-immigration rhetoric and promotion of conspiracy theories.
The party’s slogan, “Japanese First,” resonated with voters who feel the influx of foreign residents and tourists has worsened inflation and strained local resources.
Sanseito gained traction during the pandemic, using YouTube to push messages against vaccinations, masks, and globalism. Their rapid rise has unnerved mainstream parties and could reshape Japan’s political landscape.
Pressure Mounts on Ishiba
Ishiba’s leadership is now under serious scrutiny. Historically, LDP prime ministers who lost the upper house majority—like Ishiba has—resigned within two months.
If Ishiba steps down, several LDP figures are expected to vie for the top job:
- Sanae Takaichi, runner-up in last year’s leadership race
- Takayuki Kobayashi, a former minister for economic security
- Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former PM Junichiro Koizumi
A leadership shake-up could inject fresh political turmoil as Japan negotiates critical trade agreements with the U.S.
Rising Anti-Foreigner Sentiment
In response to growing nationalist sentiment, Ishiba last week launched a task force targeting “crimes or nuisance behaviours” by foreign nationals. This includes issues related to land acquisition and unpaid social insurance.
The move has drawn criticism from rights groups but reflects a wider public unease over immigration and Japan’s changing demographics.
While the Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed for a public holiday on Monday, the yen strengthened slightly on global markets—suggesting that investors had anticipated the election outcome.
With public discontent rising and rivals circling, Ishiba’s political survival may depend on how quickly he can rebuild trust and deliver concrete results.
