When Lewis Hamilton equaled Michael Schumacher’s record of seven Formula 1 world championships, his fate as the leader in the sport’s statistical clubhouse appeared set.
Mercedes, after all, had just dominated the 2020 season and a still-on-top-of-his-game Hamilton had claimed six titles in seven years. One more crown, would make him F1’s most decorated driver of all time.
But then came a much more competitive campaign than expected against Max Verstappen and Red Bull, and the crushing, infamously unfair, despair of an Abu Dhabi title finale that saw him robbed of the record.
Now, Hamilton heads into the 2023 campaign as far away as ever from his elusive title, with Mercedes having dropped from title-contenders to a team bidding to recover from their worst season in a decade.
Aged 38, Hamilton isn’t getting any younger. And questions must be asked.
Is time now against Hamilton in his dream bid for eight? Do Mercedes have it in them to provide the car the Englishman needs? Will a driver who previously ruled out driving at 40, keep going until he gets there?
With the help of the Sky Sports F1 pundits, we attempt to provide answers.
So close, yet so far
We’d be remiss talking about Hamilton’s quest without starting with just how close he got to completing it.
No driver, bar Felipe Massa at the hands of Hamilton, has ever been denied so late on in a season. And that 2008 finale, while dramatic, had nothing on 2021 in terms of controversy and unjust conclusions.
You know the story by now. Hamilton, after an incorrect application of the rules by F1’s race director and his team, was thrust into a one-lap showdown against Verstappen he was never going to win, on older tyres.
Verstappen would pass Hamilton on the last lap of the last race, in the cruellest ending to what was an incredible title battle.
“To come within a lap of the eighth championship and then potentially… he might not ever win it,” said Ted Kravitz.
“Michael Schumacher wasn’t able to win an eighth, Lewis Hamilton hasn’t been able to win an eighth – is there something in the stars about an eighth world championship?”
Think about the agony Hamilton went through after that fiasco, and in the coming months. Even if Mercedes were quick last year, it is important to understand just how much an emotional toll that took out of him.
Coupled with Mercedes not being quick, does Hamilton recognize his dream was starting to fade?
“I think that’s why Abu Dhabi hit him so hard,” said Martin Brundle. “You could see him struggling with that through the early phase of 2022.
“I think time is looking against him.”
Has Mercedes’ run at the front run its course?
F1 is unique in that the athlete is heavily reliant on his tools to claim the biggest individual prizes.
And just as Hamilton expertly made the most of Mercedes’ package from 2014 to 2020, he, or team-mate George Russell, could not battle for wins and titles with the car supplied to them last season.
There are also real concerns about this year’s car, with Mercedes – while seemingly having fixed the bouncing issues which plagued 2022 – still looking firmly third, at best, in the pecking order at pre-season testing.
“I think there’s a very low chance of him winning that eighth title this year,” said Karun Chandhok.
“Because unless Mercedes have got a huge amount of sandbags in that car it so far looks like they’re not going to be able to stop Max this year.”
Damon Hill added: “They’re going to have to do something extraordinary based on testing.”
Mercedes don’t appear, then, to be in title reckoning from the start, and even team boss Toto Wolff has frequently used the word “eventually” having a competitive car.
“I think it’s going to take another year for Mercedes, at least,” said Ted.
Is Hamilton even still at his best?
It has been evident over the years in F1 that drivers begin to endure a dip in performance as they advance in age. That was true for the great Michael Schumacher and, more recently, Sebastian Vettel quickly went from a title-winning machine to a driver commonly making mistakes.
Hamilton, though, bucked that trend as he moved past his mid-30s, seemingly improving as he kept the sharp reflexes and incredible touch from his early years while adding the experience and patience that comes with age. It is his longevity and consistency that arguably makes him F1’s greatest ever, already.
But was 2022 – Hamilton’s worst-ever F1 season in terms of championship finish (sixth) and race wins (zero), as well as a year that saw him outscored by Mercedes rookie team-mate Russell – evidence that he is finally declining?
“He didn’t access that championship-challenging gear last year,” said Ted. “He was never in it.”
“He seems still motivated and pumped up to do the job,” said Karun. “I have no doubt that if they were in contention for world championships and race wins, Lewis is the man to deliver it for Mercedes.
“I think if they are six, seven tenths off the pace this year, then we could see a bit of a repeat of last year where he keeps going down different rabbit holes for the setup and direction… and he’s not quite getting the results.
“We certainly saw from Barcelona last year when the car got better, Lewis shifted up a gear.”
Even his great rival Verstappen admitted: “He’s been one of the greatest drivers ever in the sport, so for sure if he has the car to do it, he can fight for the title again.”
We are left, then, with the following conclusion: Hamilton is still one of F1’s best and has the ability to win that eighth title, though the Mercedes car he needs to compete might not be capable of that until 2024 at the earliest.
With Hamilton’s contract expiring at the end of the season, it begs the question: Will Hamilton keep racing until he breaks the title record?
Retiring, as Hamilton was rumored to be about to do if he had won the eighth in Abu Dhabi, and what he considered after he lost it, would be understandable.
“He has nothing else to prove,” said Ted.
Changing teams – and Hamilton has fluttered at rivals, particularly Ferrari, in the past – would also be a tempter for most other drivers in his position.
“Mercedes’ headache is whether Lewis thinks, if I’m going to win an eighth title, I’m going to have to change,” said Hill.
But while having frequently said in the past that he doesn’t want to race as long as, say, Fernando Alonso (41), the fact Hamilton has started talks over a multi-year deal with Mercedes (you do the math) proves the drive for eight, and his commitment to Mercedes, is strong.
“I don’t feel like I need them to prove [anything] to me,” said Hamilton at Mercedes’ car launch. “I think we’ve proved time and time again over the years that we have strength in depth.
“It’s an exciting time for the team. And I don’t plan on being anywhere else.
He added to Sky Sports News: “This has been my life for such a long time and I feel currently fit enough and deserving of my position – so I’m going to continue to go for a bit.”
(Skysport)
