Ahmed Yahaya -Joe
“The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” – Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister 1939-1945
Looking back at the June 12, 1993 presidential election there wasn’t a single cogent reason why it was annulled. The fundamental issue was that the then military junta had absolutely no sincerity of purpose to handover to any democratically elected civilian president.
In fact, the military never intended nor prepared to gravitate back to the barracks. As Andrew Apter back then put it, the IBB’s “Transition Program” culminated into; “an electoral charade that was fabricated, screened, revised, postponed, and choreographed by the regime’s inner circle, only to be cancelled at the final curtain”
IBB; “The Prince of the Niger” never had any intention to cede power. Unfortunately, he neither detected the traps grossly underestimating the wolves around him. According to Niccolo Machiavelli (1469-1527) “A prince must learn from the fox and the lion; because the lion is defenceless against traps and a fox is defenceless against wolves.”
IBB unwittingly boxed himself into a corner. On one hand the annulment was opposed by several officers like Lt-General Salihu Ibrahim, Major General Ishola Williams and Colonel Abubakar Dangiwa Umar among others.
They insisted the results of the June 12 presidential elections be fully announced and power handed over to the winner. These were members of the professional wing of the Nigerian Army. While on the other hand, there were those leading the charge that the June 12 results not only be jettisoned by the National Electoral Commission (NEC) but IBB leaves office also.
These were the die-hard stock of coup artisans and hardened corps of merchants in uniform led by General Sani Abacha – head of the political wing of the army.
To make things worst Chief Abiola naively aligned himself with the latter group partly because Omo Omoruyi in page 166 of his must read – The Tale June 12: The Betrayal of the Democratic Rights of Nigerians (1999) quotes Brigadier General David Mark, then Director of Studies, National War College as saying; “I’d shoot Chief Abiola the day NEC announces him elected president” Unfortunately, the generalissimo panicked and escaped abroad. Abiola henceforth lost the strategic initiative. His party chairman, Chief Anthony Annenih and running mate, Ambassador Babagana Kingibe used the cover of Abiola’s tactical blunder to join the Khaki boys in a new government.
To any casual observer back then the “Transition Program” was a monumental sham ab initio; If so why was Bashorun MKO Abiola so seduced by the propects of being president?
It would be too uncomplimentary and most disrespectful to refer to the late 14th Aare Ona Kakanfo as a useful idiot. I prefer to describe him as a clueless pawn because as Signor Machiavelli would add; “Princes and republics should contend themselves. For when they aim at more, they generally lose. False hope takes possession of the mind, and it makes men go beyond the mark, and causes them to sacrifice a certain good for an uncertain better”
Kingmakers don’t become kings; “A kingmaker is a person or group that has great influence on a royal or political succession, without themselves being a viable candidate. Kingmakers may use political, monetary, religious, and military means to influence the succession. Originally, the term applied to the activities of Richard Neville, 16th Earl of Warwick — Warwick the Kingmaker during the Wars of the Roses (1455–1487) in England.”
Chief Abiola was indeed a quintessential kingmaker. He was pivotal to President Shehu Shagari getting the required votes to make up the 25% requirement in Two-Thirds of then 19 states in Nigeria during the 1979 presidential elections.
The multiple chief was also integral to the demise of the Second Republic that removed Shagari from office when they fell out while concurrently financing the ascension of Major General Muhammadu Buhari as military Head of State. MKO still became part of the conspiracy that removed GMB from office twenty months later.
The Bashorun was in addition significantly instrumental to the emergence of retired Major General Shehu Musa Yar’adua as the Social Democratic Party (SDP) flagbearer on August 1, 1992.
If it could be recalled the primaries were cancelled on October 16, 1992 alongside that of the National Republican Convention (NRC) by IBB. This cleared the way for Abiola to emerge instead. Yar’adua reacted by famously accusing IBB with a new description in our lexicon -“hidden agenda”
28 years down the line, I still find it amusing how MKO would assume he could swagger where an accomplished political godfather like Yar’adua woefully failed to tread!
Meanwhile, looking ahead at 2023 as Festus Adedayo recently posited; “At the risk of sounding patronizing, no 1999 Class of politician has acquired Tinubu-type huge political muscles, majesty and political bravura in Nigeria. The culmination of his grits manifested when, in 2015, he literally single-handedly ensured the emergence of severally-scorned-at-the-polls Muhammadu Buhari as president of Nigeria.”
I totally agree with Mr. Adedayo. Tinubu has not only grand strategized but effectively dominated Lagos now for 2 decades and still counting. Asiwaju is undoubtably the nearest equivalent of a consistently recurrent kingmaker anywhere in Nigeria. During the 2011 presidential contest, Jagaban even had the effrontery to ditch the Action Congress of Nigeris (ACN) Nuhu Ribadu/Fola Adeola, ticket openly backing the ruling Jonathan/Sambo horse to victory with reckless abandon.
It however amazes me how BAT exemplifies supreme political naivety in his own backyard. As “National Leader of APC” he is neither a member of the ruling party’s National Executive Council nor National Working Committee. The party’s Board of Trustees has never met since Buhari became president in 2015.
Even the APC constitutionally amended formation of an Elders Council has not be carried out. Even Tinubu’s implant as National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole has been thrown under the bus.
Is it true that the ongoing party re-registration being conducted by the APC is a direct rough tackle of Tinubu’s suzerainty in the party?
“The earlier registration was said to have had been his brainchild which he owned, including the company which conducted it, which was his proxy. He deployed this register to his advantage, especially in states of the country conducting governorship party primaries mid-season in the last few years. By asking for a fresh registration, party faithful know that it is an indirect jab against and vote of no confidence on Tinubu’s control of the party, again by the cabal that is remote-controlling the present Tinubu’s travails.”
How many of us remember Uche Chukwumerijie? He was minister of information under IBB and eventually Chief Ernest Shonekan. Back then the current holder of that office, Lai Mohammed was a struggling Mushin legal practitioner. Anyway Comrade Chukwumerijie described MKO Abiola’s efforts to have his mandate validated as a Praetorian Guard complex.
“The Praetorian Guard was an elite unit of the Imperial Roman army.The first emperor, Augustus, founded the Guard as his personal security detail. Although they continued to serve in this capacity for roughly three centuries, the Guard became notable for its intrigue and interference in Roman politics, to the point of overthrowing emperors and proclaiming their successors”
Presidential elections 30 years apart, Bashorun and Asiwaju, media moguls with an eye on the political ball like Silvio Berlusconi of Italy before them, have availed themselves to be cynically used in circumstances they could neither properly understand nor fully control. They have also gathered a long trail of political enemies many with the unforgiving memory of the elephant.
The common predicaments of Bashorun and Asiwaju have nothing to do with their origin because power has its rhythms and patterns. It is not a respecter of background, origin or creed. It however obeys those that conscientiously understudy it.
Kingmakers do not become kings because there is a fundamental difference between power and control. That is why Othman Dan Fodio never became Sultan in 1807 and Sir Ahmadu Bello recused himself from being Prime Minister in 1960. Papa Awo’s worst political mistake was becoming Federal Leader of Opposition.
He should have remained in Ibadan pulling the strings instead. He never became Prime Minister in the process he not only lost out in his home region but in the newly created Mid-West Region. Strategic blunder par excellence!
I rest my case.
